Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
